Just a few hundred miles off the coast of Oregon, there’s an active undersea volcano – Axial Seamount. The volcano is similar to Hawaiian examples, being a shield volcano that slowly discharges lava rather than a traditional eruption. Axial Seamount is the most active undersea volcano in the Northeast Pacific territory and has erupted three times in the last 30 years.
Its last eruption was ten years ago, in 2015. However, scientists monitoring the volcano have suggested that it could erupt again in the near future. This could be within a few weeks or even take months, but expectations are that it will erupt sometime in 2025.
Geological Setting
The volcano is located on diverging tectonic plates, the Juan de Fuca play, and the Pacific plate. These plates’ divergence creates a new seafloor where there are several hotspots for magma to rise from inside the Earth’s mantle.
These factors create the perfect circumstances for volcanic activity, making Axial Seamount one of the most active examples on the planet, with previous eruptions occurring in 1998, 2011, and 2015. Axial’s summit has a large caldera that is rectangular in shape, measuring around 4.8 miles by 1,8 miles.
Signs Of An Eruption
Researchers have been monitoring the volcano for any activity and recently have noticed magma rising underneath its caldera, leading to an expansion of its seafloor. Along with this rising magma, more seismic activity has been noticed, which creates mini earthquakes in the region.
Recently, overall seismic activity has lowered, but the magma is still rising, which is getting to a point where an eruption could be around the corner. Scientists will continue to monitor the situation and give better estimates as to when the volcano could erupt as signs grow stronger.
Watching It Closely
With Axial Seamount having a history of frequent eruptions, it needs to be closely watched, especially after the last eruption only ten years ago, which scientists accurately predicted by watching seafloor inflation and a rise in local earthquakes.
After releasing its magma, the volcano reduces once again until magma eventually accumulates underneath its caldera once again, prompting the signs of yet another eruption. The predictable rising and deflating of the volcano means that scientists can accurately monitor and predict future eruptions, such as the one that could occur before the end of this year.
Not An Explosive Volcano
When communities think of volcanic eruptions, they normally think of grandiose and often dangerous explosions like Pompei. In Axial Seamount’s case, the eruptions could be easily missed, with everything happening under the water. Magma oozes out of the volcano rather than erupting hundreds of feet into the air.
These eruptions are mostly inoffensive, without any ash fallout to pollute the air or cover habitats and urban areas. This means that flight plans for commercial airliners aren’t altered, and only underwater habitats see the extent of the eruption. The magma can touch the surface, but will rapidly cool and stay in thick flows for a while.
Marine Impact
While the eruption of the volcano won’t have any significant impact on land-based communities or air travel, it will have a substantial impact on localized marine environments. A diverse array of sea creatures live around hydrothermal vents and have adapted to the unique environmental conditions they create.
Tubeworms and many microbes live off of these gases. When the volcano erupts, the resulting magma will slowly spread across the seafloor and destroy its inhabitants. However, once the lava has cooled off, new habitats are formed, and the cycle starts again. While some species are displaced by these events, others would benefit from the change in chemistry and temperature.
Coastal Safety
Despite the volcano erupting with immense force, its location ensures that even human-inhabited coastal regions are not threatened. It’s fortunate that an undersea volcano is so active, as a terrestrial one would have far-reaching implications for nearby communities.
The volcano being so far underwater means that the lava will never reach coastal territories, and its seismic activity is localized. The only human infrastructure that could be at risk of this volcano is undersea cables or research equipment. The volcano is also unlikely to trigger a tsunami that would reach the coastline.
Scientific Importance
The historical activity of Axial Seamount means that it is the most closely monitored undersea volcano on the planet, with a cable array connected via the Ocean Observatories Initiative and NeMO’s submerged volcano observatory.
All of these monitoring efforts result in an accurate measuring of real-time data on everything from earthquakes to seafloor expansion and hydrothermal behavior. Together, a prediction model is formed that can accurately forecast a possible eruption in the near future, just like what is happening now. Although human communities aren’t affected, it is still good to be informed.
Challenges In Prediction
While all of the monitoring equipment working together can give a prediction that the volcano will most likely erupt soon, technology still has a way to go, and researchers cannot provide an accurate prediction of time. As the inflation of the volcano increases with seismic activity, scientists can tell that an eruption might be imminent, but these factors can fluctuate wildly and without warning.
Previous forecasts did warn of an eruption but were off by months when it came to timing. Models will only become more refined in the future as new technology is developed and leveraged.
Poised For An Eruption
While prediction models may not be perfect, they still forecast that an eruption is very much a possibility by the end of this year. It could happen in weeks or in a few months as seismic activity and inflation fluctuates. The marine environment around the volcano will rapidly change following the eruption, snuffing out some life but opening avenues for marine life and environments to emerge in the aftermath.
This eruption will mark the fourth in the last 30 years, showcasing the frequency of some of the most active volcanoes in the world. This eruption certainly won’t be the last that Axial Seamount has to offer.
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